In the short term, oil prices are expected to continue at the levels seen during the later month of 1999 into 2000. As OPEC production cutbacks are relaxed and non- OPEC production increases are realized, however, prices are expected to fall back slightly from the 2000 level, then increase gradually out to 2020. When the economic recovery in Asia is complete and demand growth in developing countries throughout the world is expected to be sustained at robust levels.   There is likely an increased demand for oil in the future, because oil demand is driven by economic growth with rising population.  Industrialized countries still will consume the highest levels of oil. In developing countries such as China, Brazil, Mexico and others, consumption per capita will increase at a rapid pace and it is 

projected to more than double, increasing from 24.2 million barrels per day to 49.0 million barrels per day in 2020.  The Asian economy, which was effected by a recession, is already showing signs of a recovery.  China and India are expected to consume 8.0 million barrels per day in the year 2020 compared to the U.S.A. which consumes 6.5 million.  Strong growth is also expected in the Central and South America and increases in oil consumption are also expected in the Middle East and Africa. 
Due to the fact of the low oil prices in the 1998 and early 1999, drilling and developing activities were declining worldwide; only in the Middle East drilling was not declining.  These indicates that over the next two decades the increase in the demands will be mainly met by increases in production by the OPEC members rather than by non-OPEC suppliers. It is assumed that the total OPEC share increases to 55 percent or even higher.  Some people believe that OPEC might pursue significant price escalation as a result of not building new infrastructure and not expand their capacity.   If OPEC members do not imply an aggressive effort to attract investment capital to implement a wide range of production capacity expansion projects, world oil prices could escalate.  Nevertheless the combination of potential profitability and the threat of competition from non-OPEC suppliers will argue hopefully for an aggressive expansion strategy.  In addition there is an optimistic outlook for Nigeria's offshore production and a potential production increase in Algeria, Indonesia, and Venezuela, which would reduce the Persian Gulf share.  The price case projection on oil price increases of more than 4$ per barrel from 1999 to 2000, a decline to less then 3$ per barrels and then a 0,4-percent average annual increase through 2020. 
As it looks like OPEC will be most important to U.S. oil import. Following I have I have listed the most important states for the U.S. and discussed possible development and risk scenarios. Saudi Arabia is the biggest oil exporter and remains key to the global supply system.  The United States is Saudi Arabia's largest customer.  Saudi Arabia is often assumed to be the swing producer, a position the Saudi government does not like because it bears the blame for high and low oil prices.  Saudi Arabia however would like to increase its capacity to maintain market share, as oil demand grows.  Earlier the United States thought that inter-Arab, Arab-Israel, and OPEC politics rather than the need for revenue at home drove Saudi oil policy.  Since the kingdom continued to pay cash for American weapons technology U.S. policy makers thought that Saudi Arabia has al the money it needed and more.  But this view is badly outdated.  Saudi's oil policy is now driven mainly by revenue needs of a government, struggling to maintain a welfare state designed in the 1970 when population was small and money seemed limit less. Maintaining both high defense spending and far-reaching social services for a growing population has kept Saudi Arabia in the red since 1983.   There will be the questions how they will finance the development of new oil production and the renewing of old equipment to increase capacity.  Saudi Arabia will need international financial help. 
Nigeria, another OPEC member had a constant loss of output to social unrest.  Nigeria's deepwater drilling provides some hope, with some of the strongest upside production potential, within the cartel.  Unfortunately Nigeria has a history of never living up to its potential, due to political instability. 
Another example is Venezuela where the output fell dramatically due to the left- wing Chavez regime.  Chavez who came to power in 1998, cut back the capacity growth plans, which involved the opening of some of the oil sector to foreign companies.  Foreign companies are less enthusiastic, in this less inviting political environment to invest.  The Venezuelan government is looking for foreign investment in natural gas, petrochemicals, electricity and oil.  There is a risk that the money simply doesn't reach for all the planed projects.  Venezuela will increase its capacity but much slower that estimated in case of political stability. 
Further there is Mexico where production fell as well.  Usually Mexico doesn't co-operate with OPEC easy and sometimes increases the production when the rest of the OPEC nation cut their output.  Always concerned with losing U.S. market share, Mexico just cut production because of Venezuela's inability to grow the U.S. downstream.  Mexico's co-operation with OPEC to cut output helped to cerate the Saudi- Venezuelan agreement to cut the output dramatically in the early 1999.  There is an expected annual increase in capacity in the NAFTA state of around 17% until the year 2005.
Iraq, another OPEC member will be interesting to watch.  Iraq has indicated a desire to expand its production capacity aggressively when once UN sanctions are lifted.  Iraq exports would help to reduce high oil prices, which are currently associated with the production cutbacks.  At the present time, Iraq is limited to which amount it is aloud to export by the UN oil for food program.  It appears that Iraq makes steady progress in eroding the sanctions and the UN doesn't impose it as strict as it did.  Iraq could double its production capacity in five years, provided sanctions are lifted.  The problem in Iraq is the ruling government with its leader Saddam Hussin.  A press statement from Richard Boucher, spokesman of the U.S. State Department indicated new aggressive Iraqi activities.  Recent humanitarian flights to Baghdad have heightened the concern for the safety of aircrafts operating over Iraqi territory. There are continues military operations, which present a danger to aircraft and passengers.  Iraq has deployed anti-